Forgive me for not laughing. This is no Hollywood blockbuster with a guaranteed happy ending. The events of the last eight months are a real-life drama that has brought untold suffering to Ukraine and, many believe, the world closer to nuclear conflict than at any time since the Cuban Missile Crisis 60 years ago. So, where does the screenplay go from here? Much depends on the answer to this question: how far is Vladimir Putin prepared to go to secure victory – or to avoid defeat – in Ukraine? If you re-read his address to the nation from 24 February – the speech he made after ordering the invasion of Ukraine – you may conclude he will do whatever it takes: “And now a few important – very important – words to those who may be tempted to meddle from the sidelines in what’s happening. Those who try to get in our way, or create threats to our country and our people, should be aware: Russia’s response will be instantaneous and bring the kind of consequences you have never experienced in history.” Outside Russia, “consequences you have never experienced in history” was widely interpreted as unashamed nuclear sabre-rattling. And, in the months that followed, the rattling continued...................................................... In April, President Putin threatened “a lightning-fast response [if] anyone tries to interfere from the sidelines and create a strategic threat to Russia. We have all the weapons we need for this”. In September he added his infamous one-liner: “This is no bluff.” This week, at the Valdai Discussion Club (scene of that long, worrying pause I described earlier), President Putin was sending mixed signals. He denied having any intention of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine.